In contrast to the habitual state of antagonism, the Middle East has witnessed an unusual moment of regional de-escalation in the past two years. Several key actors have engaged in diplomatic appeasement, normalising relations, and the opening of new pages in bilateral relations. Türkiye, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, and others have followed this new approach, signing several agreements, ranging from business and security to defence and tourism.
However, optimism for a more peaceful future in the Middle East is tempered by realities on the ground. A looming food crisis, exacerbated by skyrocketing prices, could easily contribute to yet another wave of upheavals in the region. Meanwhile, fault lines continue to be active in Syria, Libya, Yemen, and elsewhere, creating the conditions for another potential regional flare-up.
While the United States’ position has considerably shifted from the posturing of the ‘War on Terror,’ the strategic coalescence around the so-called ‘pivot to Asia,’ the renewed US focus on great power competition, the Ukraine war, as well as Russia’s weaponisation of energy has paved the way for what the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Jon Alterman has called “The Middle East’s Coming Centrality.”
This session will explore how these dynamics are set to impact the future of a region in flux.